Meteonomics
Meteonomics is a concept of combining classical economic analysis with the snap weather view offered by any meteorological service. It is the result of a complex econometric model that determines the phase of a country’s economy based on probabilities. The model, utilizing a number of variables and a large database, focuses on determining the phase in which the economy might enter the coming period.
Hellenic Economic Situation through 2024
Hellenic Economic Situation through 2023
The six possible phases of an economy
Rise
The economy is growing, there is a sense of prosperity, security and wealth. The markets discount an even better future and the average capital appreciation is the main driver of the extra wealth creation. Higher risk tolerance is also linked to this stage.
Fall
The economy is shrinking, there is growing unemployment, job and wealth insecurity. The financial markets fall and to an extend they discount an even worse future. The risk appetite is diminishing and we experience a switch from higher to lower risk investments.
Stability
Τhe economy is not growing, but it is not backing down. Things are not evolving, but they are not getting worse. The financial markets are continuously looking for direction and they move between rise and fall as demand and supply overcome one another.
Disturbance
This phase resembles the Stability phase, but in this case it sometimes seems to be in a state of intense growth and sometimes shows a great decline. A vivid example of this phase is the pandemic that we went through due to COVID.
Greed
It is the last stage of an upward phase during which many believe that can have great benefits from, but end up with serious damages.
Fear
It is the last stage of a downward phase during which everyone is in a state of panic and starts acting impulsively. They run to supermarkets and buy commissions for months, sell stocks and look for hidden holes. That makes it the best period for investing, starting a company, buying a house, etc.
How the six phases are placed
Rise
The economy is growing, there is a sense of prosperity, security and wealth. The markets discount an even better future and the average capital appreciation is the main driver of the extra wealth creation. Higher risk tolerance is also linked to this stage.
The model that calculates the economic phase is called “global barometer local climate model”, and its name states exactly what it does. It calculates the state of the world and predicts local results. Meteonomics is used to predict the economic phase in Greece, but it could predict any other country’s phase.
Disclaimer: This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any stock or bond. The results of our model are based on academic research but still are indicative and subject to modification.
​
Product of research – not guaranteed results.