Frontis
Frontier Intelligence System
Frontis is a tool for monthly analysis of the Greek economy that combines
classical econometrics with behavioral “surprise” models applied to its key indicators.
Its goal is to translate complex economic data into a clear, easily understandable picture,
showing where the cycle stands today and what its most likely next direction is.
Where does the Greek economy stand today?
Each month, Frontis estimates the probability of every phase of the economic cycle and identifies the scenario that best describes current conditions.
The model combines multiple economic signals to provide a forward-looking assessment of the economy’s direction.
Where does the Greek economy stand today?
Each month, Frontis estimates the probability of every phase of the economic cycle and identifies the scenario that best describes current conditions.
The model combines multiple economic signals to provide a forward-looking assessment of the economy’s direction.
The Logic Behind Frontis
Markets react to surprises, not only to numbers.
The core of the methodology is not based on the absolute levels of various economic indicators, but on the gap between what the market expected (forecast) and what actually happened (actual).
An inflation rate of 5% does not mean the same thing if the market expected 3% or if it expected 6%. The same figure has a completely different economic and psychological impact. It is this “behavioral surprise”—that is, the gap between expectations and reality—that drives the markets and shapes sentiment, not the absolute value of each indicator.
The model was built on this principle for every key variable it tracks.
The Six Phases of the Economic Cycle
Frontis evaluates the probability of six different economic phases:
Fear
The final stage of a declining cycle, marked by pessimism, uncertainty and risk aversion. Historically, such periods can create opportunities for long-term investors and strategic decision-makers.
A contraction phase where economic activity weakens, unemployment pressures increase and confidence declines.
Markets often reflect expectations of an even more challenging future.
Fall
A period of increased uncertainty where economic signals become contradictory.
Growth and decline indicators may coexist, making direction harder to identify.
Disturbance
Α phase where the economy is neither expanding strongly nor deteriorating.
Markets search for direction as positive and negative forces balance each other.
Stability
A growth phase characterised by improving confidence, stronger economic activity and increased risk appetite.
Rise
The final stage of an upward cycle, where excessive optimism may lead to underestimated risks and future corrections.
Greed
The innovation of our model lies in determining the probability of each of these phases.
How Frontis Works
The evolution of economic intelligence.
Frontis is the evolution of METEONOMICS, Koubaras’ economic phase forecasting model for the Greek economy.
Building on the same scientific philosophy, Frontis introduces significant methodological improvements:
Economic Indicators
The model tracks key variables of the Greek economy:
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Consumer Price Index
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Manufacturing PMI
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Unemployment
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Credit expansion
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Current account balance
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Athens Stock Exchange General Index
The model also incorporates time lags to reflect the delayed transmission of economic shocks.
Advanced Statistical Modelling
Frontis improves traditional forecasting approaches through:
Multinomial Logistic Regression: Instead of predicting a single outcome, the model calculates the probability of each economic phase.
Markov Chain Analysis: The model incorporates economic cycle memory, recognising that economies usually transition gradually between phases rather than moving randomly from one state to another.
Continuous Validation
Frontis applies a walk-forward backtesting process. Historical data is continuously used to train and test the model, allowing the accuracy of each phase prediction to be evaluated over time.
What Frontis Delivers
See how Frontis translates economic complexity into actionable intelligence.
The final product is not merely a label for each month, but a complete probability distribution, accompanied by the three or four key signals that triggered it and a scenario of possible developments for the coming month. This structure is much closer to what an executive would expect from an institutional analysis tool than a simple two-dimensional position chart.
Each monthly Frontis report includes:
✓ Current economic phase assessment
✓ Probability distribution across all six phases
✓ Key economic signals driving the result
✓ Analysis of risks and opportunities
✓ Scenario for the months ahead
✓ Executive summary for decision-makers
Explore a Sample Report
Discover how Frontis translates economic complexity into actionable intelligence through a structured, executive-level report.
Economic Cycle History
Explore Frontis' monthly assessments of the Greek economy over the past 12 months.
The model that calculates the economic phase is called “global barometer local climate model”, and its name states exactly what it does. It calculates the state of the world and predicts local results. Meteonomics is used to predict the economic phase in Greece, but it could predict any other country’s phase.
Disclaimer: This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any stock or bond. The results of our model are based on academic research but still are indicative and subject to modification.
Product of research – not guaranteed results.