The future we all know... has changed: The significance of major crises

The multifaceted crises—climate, health, energy, geopolitical, debt, and trust—that will determine the future of humanity. Written by Theodore N. Krintas.

We all believe that the current decade will be shaped, and is already being shaped, by many crises. Climate, health, energy, geopolitics, debt, and trust are the most significant crises we have experienced to date. Although we are living in the most prosperous and peaceful period in human history, we systematically neglect these enormous gifts and engage in an endless struggle for consumerism with a short-term focus and a search for easy and/or quick solutions to what we consider to be "current" important issues. We believe that the future will not be shaped by the present and the crises we have experienced and are experiencing. We believe that it will be shaped by our will or behaviour, and for this reason, what we all know... has already changed.

Environment & Health

The environment will play a decisive role. The climate crisis is not here yet. We are going through a period of climate change. But we are all talking about crisis. We exaggerate the headlines and thus underestimate the symptoms. If the climate crisis means a temperature of 20°C in November, perhaps it is not such a big problem, now that heating costs are so high. Is it? Yes, it is! Because we are in a phase of changing temperatures and it will not stop there. We must fight hard, change our attitudes and, above all, our behavior to keep it that way. The forces of the environment are enormous. We all know that the forces of the earth can change everything in a matter of minutes or hours. Our generation, GenX (the 1960s), has a duty to limit this damage.

We all talk about the big change that the pandemic has brought to work. Remote working and changing locations every few months are no longer an eccentricity of the technology sector. They are now a viable option for work functions in all sectors. However, we must bear in mind that at the same time, a wave of resignations is emerging. The great resignation was created due to stagnant wages amid rising living costs, limited opportunities for professional advancement, "toxic" work environments, lack of benefits, etc. Long-term dissatisfaction with work, combined with a short-term approach to economic factors, has led many employees to combine two or three part-time jobs rather than long-term employment. Careers are less relevant today; what is required for the inclusion of new employees is democracy and communication infrastructure.

Technology & Government

At the same time, more and more national governments around the world are entering the technological fray. This is a serious attempt to effectively address the controversy surrounding their effectiveness and reliability. Beyond the simple IT and database applications of the past decade, blockchain technologies, cryptocurrencies, NFTs, digital certificates, and wallets are already the basic tools that governments use to gain and increase the trust of their citizens. Increased efficiency will also reduce the number of civil servants per capita, due to lower recruitment needs, which will also allow states to focus on investments. These investments can also solve the problem already identified in the planet's food production system, which in a few years will reach 10 billion in population. Several scientists report that a food crisis is already looming. Although humans are carnivores, vegan trends will increase and it is certain that a huge change in eating habits will occur. As we as a species are extremely resistant to change, and some readers are already feeling uncomfortable, I would like to point out that, according to some researchers, this kind of change in our diet will add 20 years to our life expectancy by 2050.

Fundamental Rules

The basic rule of supply and demand will continue to shape trends and prices. As much as we would like to believe that some governments can control prices or inflation, in the long term, these will remain phenomena shaped by fundamental rules and the behavior of populations. For example, we cannot expect a significant drop in housing values in the coming years, no matter how much interest rates rise, because people simply do not have enough houses or enough capacity to build them. We all understand that with an additional billion people on earth in 2030, this shortage of housing will become serious, especially in large cities. Reading about energy costs concerns our behavior. Most energy crises have been caused by local shortages, wars, and market manipulation. Whatever some people may argue, most of the crises of the 21st century have had their roots in actual energy shortages or government actions. In other words, these are problems of temporary disruption or disturbance of supply. It must be understood that when supply cannot be restored quickly and on a large scale, the solution is to reduce demand. As long as demand remains at previous levels, prices will remain high or, worse still, will rise.

A crisis, which has become our favorite word lately, is a chain reaction. It can start as a financial crisis, turn into an economic or fiscal crisis, a banking crisis, then a political crisis, a crisis of confidence, etc. It can start at any point in the chain, but most of the time it will progress through all stages. The usual starting point for democracies is the bursting of a price bubble (excessively high prices) that will turn into an economic crisis, lead to political and even geopolitical tensions, possibly energy shortages, transportation problems, and ultimately distort confidence. If the state, politics, the media, and ultimately all of us slip into populism and the environment becomes hostile, environmental and health crises may even arise, at the very moment when science is presenting solutions in a direct and effective manner.

None of us can claim to know the absolute truth, especially when looking to the future. However, it is interesting to note that if we assign different values—behaviors—to the three axes described above, we are led with mathematical precision to a different future. My humble intention, therefore, is to help us understand the fundamental factors that shape our future and, at the same time, to raise our awareness of the very important ones that we can influence. Otherwise, the future will be constantly changing, and the planet has proven, over billions of years, that the very powerful always win. The human race does not have such power.